top of page
  • Writer's pictureDolly Gupta

Insider Sports Betting Strategy - Baseball Edition

Sports betting has come a long way, and baseball is one of the most popular games to wager on. According to the American Gaming Association, an estimated $8.5 billion was bet on Major League Baseball (MLB) in 2021. This blog aims to dive deep into insider sports betting strategies specifically tailored for baseball, ensuring you can make informed wagers.

Insider Sports Betting Strategy - Baseball Edition

Understanding Baseball Betting Markets

#1. Money Line Betting

The most straightforward type of baseball bet, where you pick the winner of a game. According to statistics, home teams win about 54% of the time in MLB.

#2. Over/Under Betting (Totals)

Here, you wager on the total number of runs scored. The average MLB game has around 9.0 to 9.5 total runs, providing a benchmark for bets.

#3. Run Line Betting

Similar to point spread in other sports, run line betting involves wagering on the run difference between the two teams.

Top 5 Famous Baseball Leagues to Bet On

#1. Major League Baseball (MLB) - United States

Widely considered the pinnacle of baseball talent, MLB is the most popular league for bettors.

#2. Nippon Professional Baseball (NPB) - Japan

Known for its quality play and distinct style, Japan's NPB also provides exciting betting opportunities.

#3. Korean Baseball Organization (KBO) - South Korea

The KBO has captured global attention, offering bettors a different flavor of baseball.

#4. Cuban National Series - Cuba

This league is renowned for its raw talent, many of whom eventually make it big in the MLB.

#5. Venezuelan Professional Baseball League (LVBP) - Venezuela

LVBP offers a passionate fan base and unique betting opportunities, especially during the MLB offseason.

Key Factors to Consider in Baseball Betting

When diving into the world of baseball betting, understanding key factors that influence the game can make the difference between a winning and losing wager. From player performance to weather conditions, these elements are critical for making informed bets.

#1. Player Form and Injuries

Keep an eye on player statistics and recent injuries. About 30% of MLB games are decided by one run, emphasizing the importance of individual performance.

#2. Weather Conditions

Wind speed and direction can significantly affect the game. For instance, a strong wind blowing out can result in more home runs.

#3. Umpire Bias

Believe it or not, umpires can impact a game's outcome. Some umpires have a history of calling more strikes, leading to lower-scoring games.

Advanced Strategies for Successful Baseball Betting

#1. Sabermetrics

The advanced stats, or sabermetrics, offer deep insights into player performance. Metrics like WAR (Wins Above Replacement) are valuable for evaluating players.

#2. Bullpen Analysis

The strength of a team's bullpen can often decide the late stages of a game. Teams with strong bullpens tend to perform better in close matches.

#3. Leveraging Public Opinion

Public opinion often skews odds. Betting against the public in highly publicized games can be profitable, as bookmakers adjust odds based on public sentiment.

#4. Hedging

Hedging involves placing bets on different outcomes to mitigate losses from your initial bet. This is particularly useful in live betting and for events where the odds change frequently, ensuring you secure some level of profit.

#5. Arbitrage Betting

This is the practice of betting on all possible outcomes of an event at odds that guarantee a profit, regardless of the result. It takes advantage of the differing odds offered by competing bookmakers.

Case Studies and Facts about Insider Sports Betting Strategy

  • A 2021 study revealed that underdogs beat the spread in 45.6% of MLB games.

  • Betting against the public in MLB yielded a 2.8% return on investment in the 2021 season.


When it comes to baseball betting, it's not just about the thrill of the game but also the strategy behind your wagers. From understanding the basics like Money Line and Over/Under bets to diving deep into advanced strategies like sabermetrics and arbitrage betting, there's a multi-layered approach to mastering the art of baseball betting. With the right mix of knowledge and analytical skills you can grow your betting game from a weekend hobby to a more serious endeavor. However, remember that no strategy comes with a guarantee; always bet responsibly and within your means. Happy betting!


bottom of page